I am Adam, twenty-one, in Poland. I build the parts of prediction markets that nobody has built yet.
I started because the things I wanted to use did not exist. That has not changed.
Adam Szymański, founder of 10bips: pricing resolution risk to make event contracts bankable
Pricing models. Market-making tools. The architecture those markets run on.
Prediction markets are the first mechanism that pays people for telling the truth about the future. Today that mostly means elections and sports.
Tomorrow it prices drug trial outcomes, startup survival, climate targets, economies' performance, and the cost of a FLOP in 2028.
Almost everything load-bearing underneath that is still unsolved. Ten of those problems are written up here. I am working on the infrastructure for the rest.
Ten of those problems are written up. None of them are solved.
Each one is explained three ways and ends with where I would start. Read the index.
A contract is only as good as its settlement. 10bips prices that risk.
I run it to make event contracts bankable. Before it, I was a quant engineer at Touchmarket and Blueprints. The whole list is here.
Compare notes.
If you are working on any of this, or think one of the ten is wrong, I want to hear it.